Clintonian Delusions

Hillary Clinton ex-spokesman Howard Wolfson’s idea that Clinton would have won the Iowa caucuses had John Edwards gotten forced out of the race before that point because of his infidelity is what I call dumb-shit stuff. You have to be an idiot to say it, or an idiot to believe it.

Over at FiveThirtyEight (the definitive campaign horse-race/poll blog), Nate Silver does an excellent job of explaining why: If Clinton wasn’t a caucus-goer’s first choice, she quite likely wasn’t a second choice, either. That only stands to reason. Going into Iowa, she’d been the front-runner for the better part of two years. Democrats had a long time to think about whether they’d support her. For those who answered that question with a “no,” for whatever reason, Obama and Edwards were the natural destinations. It was a much more difficult leap for an Edwards supporter to turn back to Hillary once he was out of the race than it was to get behind Obama. 

Unless, that is, the Edwards supporters in question really disliked Obama’s stance in Iraq. Policy-wise, that was the only real difference between the two.

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